'Four-way oil swap win-win for India-Russia'

A four-way oil swap between India, Russia, Japan and the Gulf producers would be a win-win situation for New Delhi and Moscow, a noted strategic expert said.

"Japan imports the bulk of its oil from the Gulf but this has to travel a long way. If Russia meets Japan's oil needs, what it would otherwise buy could go to India. Simultaneously, India must increase its exposure in Russia's energy sector. It'll be a win-win situation for India and Russia and the other players involved," Prabhat Shukla, joint director of privately-funded think-tank Vivekananda International Foundation.

"In this way, India-Russia trade will also be boosted," Shikla, a former ambassador to Russia, said in his keynote address at an international conference on "Emerging Geo-political Trends in Asia: Prospects and Challenges for India-Russia Relations", organised by defence ministry-funded think-tank Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).

He also felt there was greater scope for India-Russia cooperation in the areas of defence and the future of Afghanistan.

"There is very little happening in service-to-service cooperation. There is not enough happening in terms of military exercises. This is not good for our defence cooperation. This is something that has to be smoothed over," Shukla maintained.

On Afghanistan, despite tremendous convergence of views, "I can't see why we are not tackling the issue together", he said.

Despite this, India-Russia relations were "very good, very solid, very stable. Whenever we have faced a systematic problem, we went to Russia and we were never let down", Shukla said.

He also thought that India and Russia should resort to a candid dialogue to sort out any concerns arising out Russia's relations with China and Pakistan and India's relations with the US.

In this context, Shukla cautioned the West against pursuing policies that could push Russia closer to China.

"It doesn't suit the West to push Russia on issues like the ballistic missile defence shield. This will only push Russia closer to China," he said, adding: "India has absolutely no interest in a confrontation between the West and Russia."

Speaking on the occasion, Alexander Lukin, vice president of the Russian foreign ministry's Diplomatic Academy, said India was "very important" for his country both at the bilateral and multilateral arenas.

Toward this, he noted that while Russia supports India's bid to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), "our great Chinese friends are not too enthusiastic".

Lukin also said Russia was going through an important transitional phase.

"Russia is living through an important transitional period. We are, in fact, going from one transitional phase to another transitional phase. We have a new president who is actually an old president. But Russia is becoming a more normal country. The 1990s were such a mess," Lukin said.

According to Lukin, Russia's foreign policy has become more consistent and pragmatic.

"It is neither pro-West nor pro-East. It is pragmatic. China became out first trading partner in 2010," he said.

Welcoming the participants, IDSA Director General Arvind Gupta said that the geopolitical scene was gradually shifting from the West to East, adding that despite the contours not being well defined, India, Russia and China in particular are emerging as important players.

"It is now fashionable to say that power is shifting from the West to the East. Russia, India and China are destined to play a major role in shaping the global order. This will see the emerge of an Asian security order," Gupta said.

Indian naval ships pay fifth friendly visit to Hai Phong

HAI PHONG — Two Indian Navy ships, the INS SHIVALIK and KARMUK, on Saturday docked at Chua Ve Port in the northern city of Hai Phong on a five-day friendship visit.
The Indian delegation, on its fifth visit to the country and led by Vice Admiral Ajit Kumar P, Commander of the Indian Eastern Fleet, is scheduled to pay a courtesy visit to leaders of the Hai Phong People's Committee, the High Command of Military Zone 3 and the Naval High Command.
Guests will also engage in an exchange with students of the Maritime University and present gifts to children at the Hoa Phuong Orphanage.
In addition, they will visit Ha Noi to pay tribute to President Ho Chi Minh at his mausoleum and tour a number of tourist sites in Hai Phong and Ha Long Bay in Quang Ninh Province.
The visit aims to tighten the traditional relations and multi-faceted cooperation between India and Viet Nam, including in national defence.

Indigenous Indian Missile Arsenal : Present and Future

Prithvi 1 : 150 Km (Army) - Inducted

Prithvi 2 : 250 Km (Air force) - Inducted

Prithvi III (Dhanush) : 350 Km (Navy) - Inducted

Medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) and Long range ballistic missile (LRBM)

Agni (TD) : 1500 km – Assumed retired

Agni-1 : 700 Km – Inducted

Agni-2 : 2000-2500 Km – Inducted

Agni-3 : 3500-5000 Km -Inducted

Agni – 4: (Agni 2 Prime ) – 2500-3500 km – To be Inducted

Agni-5:  5000-8000 km – Test Phase

Agni-6: 6000-10000 km – In Development

Cruise Missiles

BrahMos (Supersonic) : 290 km – Inducted

Nirbhay (Sub-sonic) :1000 km – In development

BrahMos-2 (Hypersonic) : 290 km - In development

Long-Range Cruise Missile (LRCM) (Supersonic) : 1000 km -  In development

Submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM)

K-15 Sagarika : 700 km – Last tested on 11 March 2012 for full range – Testing Phase

K-4 : 3,500-5,000 km - Rumored to be based on Agni-III variant -  In development

K-5 : 6,000 km – 8000km - Rumored to be based on Agni-VI variant -  In development

Tactical missiles

LRSAM (Barak-8) :  70 Km – Surface to Air Missiles under Joint Development with Israel and India , first test likely soon (Navy)

MRSAM: 70 km - Surface to Air Missiles under Joint Development with Israel and India , Modified variant of LRSAM for Air force

SRSAM: Range 15 Km , Negotiations with France on JV .

Shaurya missile : 1000-1800 Km – Rumored to be Land based Variant of K-15 Sagarika - Inducted

Prahar : 150 KM –  Battlefield support tactical system – In Test Phase

Pinaka : 40 km - Multi Barrel Rocket Launcher – Inducted

Pinaka 2 : 120 km -  In Development – Design Phase

Nag missile – 4km – Anti-tank  missiles –  In Process of Induction

Helina- 7Km- Helicopter carried version – In Test Phase

Astra missile Mk1 – 80 km –  Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Air to Air to missile –  In Trail Phase

Astra missile Mk2 – 100-120 km –  Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Air to Air to missile –  Design Phase

BMD missile system

Phase-I: AAD and PAD. For IRBM class of missiles (Development completed )
Phase-II: AD1 & AD2 for ICBM class of missiles. (In design Phase

8000 Km Agni-VI to be ready by mid 2014

Before the din that was kicked off after test firing of the much-touted Intercontinental Range Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Agni-V was settled down, India is gearing up to go for the maiden development trial of Agni-VI missile within next two years notwithstanding international reactions and pressures.

Being developed by the DRDO, the new generation ICBM Agni-VI will have a strike range of 8,000 km to 10,000 km. A reliable source told ‘The Express’ that the drawing and designing work of the most advanced missile had been started.

“It will be a three-stage missile and taller than the Agni-V. The design is just taking shape and other sub systems are under development. If everything goes as per the programme, the missile will be ready by mid 2014,” said the source.

A scientist associated with the project said unlike the bulky Agni-III, the new generation Agni-VI missile will be more trendy and sleek, so that it can be easily carried to any place and deployed as and when required.

While the length of the missile would be reportedly around 40 meters as against Agni-V’s 17.5 meter, its diameter will be 1.1 meter, which is almost half of Agni-V. The missile’s launch weight would be around 55 tonne.

The Agni-VI is said to be the latest and most advanced version among the Agni series of missiles. It will have the capability to be launched from submarine and from land-based launchers. The DRDO is also working on integrating Agni-V with submarine.

The new missile will also carry more number of warheads than any other versions. While Agni-V can carry up to three nuclear warheads, sources said the next missile in the series can carry even up to 10 nuclear warheads, capable of hitting multiple targets simultaneously.

After the first test launching of 5,000 km range Agni-V missile while many had raised question about its ICBM capabilities, though it can hit the target anywhere in Asia, Africa and Europe except America, the development of Agni-VI would definitely be a befitting reply to them.

Apart from the Agni-VI’s ground version, the DRDO is also simultaneously working out for its underground variant. The submarine launched version of the missile will arm the Arihant class submarines of the Indian Navy. This missile with a strike range of 6,000 kilometers can carry a payload of one tonne.

“We are seriously contemplating to enhance the reach of our strategic missiles. The development of Agni-VI will be a step forward to accomplish the goal. With the present strength we are capable of developing the inter-continental ballistic missiles which can hit targets beyond the range of 10,000 km,” added the scientist.

Why The US Dollar Reign Supreme? Is There No Alternative To US Dollar? – Prof.K.Nageshwar

Despite the global recession  originating in the US economy and even as the debt crisis still looms large  on it , the United States  currency dollar still remains powerful  in the global economy .  In fact in the wake of the recent developments, the global confidence in the strength of Us dollar is declining. The global capital and the countries with surpluses are looking out for safer investment destinations. This exerts severe pressure  on dollar leading to its  wide fluctuation in its value. Despite these challenges, the  US   dollar still remains powerful not because  of its strength but because of the fact that there seems no immediate alternative to it  as an international reserve currency . What factors drive us to this situation?

Most of those who want the dollar to go  are not suggesting any other currency as an alternative. But, the popular alternative suggested is the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) released  by the International Monetary fund (IMF). But, there are inherent weaknesses in the SDR of IMF. Firstly it is not a currency. It is only a unit of account. The value of this unit of account is calculated based on the weighted basket of four major currencies.  The US dollar still plays a dominant role in the SDR of IMF.

But, the SDR seems to be not in a position to pose any serious challenge to US dollar in the imminent future though countries  like China publicly voice their support to SDR. Noted economist C.P.Chandrashekhar explained the reasons for the inability of SDRs of IMF  to replace US dollar  in the near future.  There is no strong country to back SDR.  The value of SDR is weighted average of four currencies   dollar, pound, sterling, Euro and Yen. Thus any country can keep all these four currencies rather than SDR.  In fact such a strategy shall give that country  more manoueuvrable space. T he total volume of SDR s released so far is worth only 317 billion dollars. But, the total global surpluses are 6.7 Trillion dollars . Therefore the quantum of SDRs available constitute only a small proportion of total global reserve holding . Even country like China can buy the entire SDRs . Even these limited SDR s available will be distributed  to different countries. The IMF can release more SDRs only with an agreement  of countries  having at least 85 percent IMF quota.  But, only US has 17.77 percent of IMF quota. With which it can  veto any decision to increase the quantum of SDRs in circulation. As SDRs are distributed among nations , the countries  having high surpluses may not get the SDRs even if they want to buy. Finally as of now SDRs are exchanged in transactions between central banks but not among  governments and private companies.  These limitations of SDR make it ineffective as a financial asset that can be an alternative to dollar though there is strong desire for an alternative to dollar.

The competition to dollar came when Euro was launched on January , 1, 1999 . There were wide expectations  on Euro  as an international currency that would replace dollar’s supremacy . But, this did not happen. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, Euro is not the currency of any particular country, but it represents European Union. Therefore , there is no strong originating country to back this currency. There is still no   political unanimity in Europe on the Euro. There are inequalities in the levels of growth and economic strength among  the member countries that constitute Euro. In fact, the political, economic and military clout of Europe has declined in the post Second World war period.

The dollar today accepted as an international reserve currency and as a currency for international transaction. Noted economist C .P.Chandrashekhar in an incisive analysis on the future of dollar in the global currency market explains that a combination of factors contribute to the strength of a currency to be the international currency. First, the competitive strength of the economy in which the currency originates, , the confidence in the  strength of the state   to ensure that the value of the currency it backs would be stable  to goods and resources in general,  finally , the willingness of others  to accept the currency in payment .  However history suggests that it is the confidence in the state rather than the competitive strength of the economy it governs that is crucial for generalized acceptance of a currency as a reserve.  There seems to be no other country is nearer to United States in this regard despite the economic downturn and downgrading of its sovereign rating. This is precisely the strength of the US dollar. Not just the economic strength of the US, but the military and political supremacy of United States which determines the relative strength of its currency. Though several economies like that of China and India which are emerging as strong economies, there is no immediate rival to the military and political dominance. This is precisely the reason for much of the international trade done in dollars and the world’s super rich and the countries having huge surpluses would like to stock their finances in dollar denominated assets. Thus the world’s rich and the world nations have a vested interest in keeping the value of the dollar not to decline terminally. The historical experience suggests that  the periods of steep fall in the value of dollar was followed by remarkable revival in its values . As long as the structural weakness in the US economy continue , the dollar has to derive its strength  from the weaknesses in the international financial eco system rather than  it own mettle. The real alternative to US dollar and establishment of a more stable and broad based international reserve currency  can not be possible without restructuring of international political and economic order .

India must covertly target terrorists like Hafiz Saeed: Book

If India wants to destroy terrorism, then it must target terrorist leaders in India and abroad, including the Pakistan-based Hafiz Saeed, a new book says.”In order to achieve a lasting impact and ensure that the actual perpetrators of terrorism are targeted, while avoiding collateral damage, it is necessary to employ covert operations,” says security affairs expert N. Manoharan in his book “Security Deficit: Comprehensive Internal Security Strategy for India” (Pentagon Press).

But this should be restricted to “eliminating terror leadership and bases abroad and within India”.Manoharan says clandestine operations can be methodically planned and stealthily executed at an opportune moment, using, if needed, locals who harbour grudges against the targeted groups.

“Targets should include leaders of fundamentalist terrorist organisations who are known to sponsor terrorist strikes in India, their handlers and fugitives from Indian justice like Dawood Ibrahim and Hafiz Saeed.

 

“In sub-conventional warfare, it is important to take the battle into the enemy’s camp,” the author says.Pakistan denies the presence on its soil of Dawood Ibrahim, the Indian underworld don who oversaw the 1993 Mumbai bombings. Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Saeed has been blamed for the 2008 Mumbai savagery.Manoharan, senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation here, was with the Centre for Land Warfare Studies when he began working on the book.

The author says for a country of India’s size and stature, an institutionalised strategic thinking mechanism within and outside the government was woefully inadequate.

 

Saying “bureaucracies of the 19th and 20th centuries” should come to terms with contemporary crisis management, the book says there is “an urgent need to create new and responsive structures of administration that are geared to the time-frames imposed by modern technologies”.

 

“It took the US just 46 days to overhaul its internal security system post 9/11. Why can’t India?”

 

Manoharan, considered an authority on Sri Lanka including the now vanquished Tamil Tigers, offers many recommendations to overhaul India’s flawed security structure.

 

These include:

 

– India needs a ‘Security Commission’ a la Planning Commission, Election Commission, Minorities Commission et al.

 

– Each state can form a ‘State Security Commission’ to work out a long-term plan for its own security.

 

– As home ministry is overburdened, a separate ministry of ‘internal security’ can be created.

 

– The ministry of external affairs (with fewer than 800 professional diplomats) needs to expand to keep pace with India’s new found stature and responsibilities.

 

– Every Indian city should have a modern police control room. Linking all 14,000-odd police stations in the country is a must.

 

– Indian police forces have to expand rapidly. India has just about 140 police personnel per lakh population as against the UN norm of 220.

 

– National Security Guard (NSG) should be divested of VIP security duties. Every state should have a NSG-type commando force.

 

– Government should encourage independent think-tanks that offer bold ideas going against conventional thinking.

 

– Indians must organise themselves into neighbourhood watch committees through community consensus mechanism.

 

– Those with criminal antecedents must be barred from contesting elections.

 

– Parliamentary Committee on Internal Security must have a permanent research committed or consultancy attached to it.

 

– Bringing internal security under wider parliamentary scrutiny would help to gain broad political consensus.

 

Manoharan says that despite the existence of various threats, India has not adequately understood the true nature and character of these issues.

 

“This vagueness has an immense bearing on India’s response… India has given more emphasis to military options rather than political and developmental approaches…

 

“Since India’s responses to internal security threats have been passive and reactive, a perception has developed among threat bearers and their sponsors that the Indian state is soft and indolent.”

 

The book warns: “Threats to the internal security of India are multifarious. Few other countries in the world face the full spectrum of threats as India does.”

India for bigger involvement in SCO operations

India is unlikely to get full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the grouping's next month summit in China but will utilise the occasion to seek greater involvement, which might include participation in the Russia-China-led six-country-organisation's counter-terror exercises, according to sources in the government.

If the SCO accepts India's willingness to join the exercises — massive air-ground offensives against entrenched irregular military formations — this will be the first time it will be joining war games being conducted by a bloc even if it is not primarily security-oriented in its disposition.

India is also prepared for greater involvement in SCO's routine round-the-year activities such as trade ministers' meetings. It would also like closer collaboration with the SCO's Tashkent-based Regional Counter-Terrorism Structure (RCTS).

Above all, the Ministry of External Affairs puts great faith in an expanded SCO proving of great assistance in stabilising Afghanistan.

The RCTS, they believe, will play a vital role in observing trends in radical political Islam, right from the beginning of the arc of unrest in the Ferghana Valley, which is divided among three SCO members, and across the Amu Darya into Afghanistan and Pakistan. Many strategies for spreading the radical version of political Islam, including the current one of below-the-radar proselytisation, are tested or gain roots in these areas, they say.

Officials drew attention to Russia's — India's chief backer for SCO membership — observations in this regard. Calling for speeding up memberships of India and Pakistan at the SCO foreign ministers' meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for active participation by members and observers in all “international discussions on Afghanistan-related problems, coordinating positions and stressing the SCO's readiness to constructively contribute to efforts by the international community aimed at the political and economic revival of Afghanistan.”

That is why South Block will observe with interest whether Kabul will be able to overcome American suspicions about the SCO and permit it to seek membership.

The Indian reading is that Afghanistan, having signed the strategic partnership pact with the United States, would like to align with the SCO, and will be able to overcome U.S. reluctance to allow it to apply for inclusion in the SCO along with Turkey.

India, along with Pakistan, has been keen to join the SCO for the past three years but formalities for opening the membership for the first time in this decade began with all prospective candidates being given the papers and documents during the previous summit.

New Delhi and Islamabad recently received another document, which too will have to be translated, an exacting exercise in diplomacy to ensure their accurate rendition from one language to another.

Pakistan, India, Iran and Mongolia have observer status, while Turkmenistan and Afghanistan are guest invitees.

Apart from explanations about paperwork, there is some reluctance on the part of smaller members Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over widening the SCO fold because they fear new members would import their set of problems and discords into the organisation and thus take the focus away from resolving issues currently on the table.

Of the other three members, Russia has been firmly backing the case for India's inclusion along with Kazakhstan while China is said to be more “process-bound,” meaning it wants to define a procedure for membership that all countries must follow.

Officials have reasons to believe that despite the “slow and glacial pace” of deciding on the membership issue, the SCO has been accommodative of India's desire for greater role for the Observers. This was demonstrated at the SCO summit in Yekaterinburg when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sought and got greater participation for non-members at the summit.

With membership likely to elude India, New Delhi is likely to have ministerial-level representation at the summit.